Our NFL Betting Tips For Week 11

Our NFL Betting Tips For Week 11
By Mark Farrelly

With 12 winners successfully tipped up in his last three columns, @marcasbrennan has focused on some key quarterbacks and running backs this week in a bid to keep his good run going.

Carson Palmer over 290.5 passing yards @5/6

Carson Palmer has been a fantasy stud so far and there is every reason to believe he will have another 300 yard performance against the Bengals tonight. Palmer has easily surpassed the above mark in six of nine games played and the fact that they are playing a genuine Super Bowl contender also makes this a standout bet. The Bengals will ensure this is a hard fought contest and may hold the lead for the majority of the game which will ensure more throws from Palmer. The only time he has not surpassed the above mark is when the Cardinals have sauntered to easy victories and you can be sure that won't happen tonight. A high scoring match is definitely on the cards.

Darren McFadden over 80.5 rushing yards @ 5/6

Since the bye in week 6 Darren McFadden has earmarked himself as the number one runner for the Cowboys. At the running back position it's about opportunities and in the last four games he has carried the rock 93 times. 20 touches is on the card again and this is certainly more than enough opportunities to surpass the above mark. The return of Tony Romo is huge for this team and this will also mean a more balanced defence from the Dolphins, as they will not be able to stack the box like the Buccaneers did last week against Dallas. The Cowboys have the best offensive line in the league, offensive coordinator Scott Linehan loves to run the ball and Miami possess one of the worst run defences in the league- McFadden should be in for a big night.

Matthew Stafford over 276.5 passing yards @ 5/6

Stafford can be a nightmare when it comes to player props and I have tended to go with Calvin Johnson rather than his QB. However, I expect a huge game from the former number one draft pick against the Oakland Raiders for a number of reasons. To date Stafford has played some of the best pass defences in the league and their is huge drop between the likes of the Cardinals, Vikings and Rams secondaries compared to the porous Raiders they face on Sunday night. Stafford is a much better player on home turf and will be brimming with confidence after last Sunday's win, while Oakland also hold a burgeoning offense that will ensure this will be a high-scoring affair.

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Devonta Freeman over 89.5 rushing yards @ 20/23

Freeman has been one of the highlights of the season so far with his robust running style adding some much needed versatility to the Atlanta offense. Last week he was brought back down to earth with a stingy San Francisco defence piling players into the box in an effort to stuff the run. However, they are back on home turf and Dan Quinn will want to establish a good running game against a Colts run defence that is suspect in my opinion. I expect Freeman to receive 20+ carries and that is more than enough to surpass the above total.

Jonathan Stewart over 85.5 rushing yards @ 17/20

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In four of their last five games the Washington Redskins have allowed an opposition running back carry the ball for over a 100 yards. The only time that failed to happen was last week when the Saints abandoned the run quite early. But there is no doubting Washington are abysmal at defending the run and this will surely see Stewart enjoying a good game tonight in his own stadium. The Panthers have a game plan that evolves around Stewart receiving plenty of carries and he will no doubt be handed the rock on 20+ occasions tonight.

Philip Rivers over 285.5 passing yards @5/6

This is low line for Rivers and worth snapping up the 5/6. Yes, he is up against a stout pass defence in Kansas City and is hampered by a lack of top class wideouts with Keenan Allen injured, but this is San Diego on home turf we're talking about. A team that doesn't know how to spell "rushing" and abandons the run generally a quarter into the game. If they are to win the match San Diego will need a strong game from Rivers and another 300 yard outing looks in the offing.

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