Things could have been so much better, but we now know what we have to do.
After Ireland's draw in Tbilisi and Denmark's win in Copenhagen this evening, here's how the table currently looks.
Ireland currently sit tied on the top of table, but have played a game more than the Swiss. When you consider our the difficulty of our last two games, it becomes obvious that picking up a couple more points in Georgia would have been very handy indeed.
So where does this leave us heading into remainder of the group? To summarise, things now look a bit more difficult.
Tuesday's Game
After a disappointing showing for Ireland earlier today, the game in Geneva on Tuesday night takes on some added significance. If Mick McCarthy's side had won in Tbilisi, there would have been less pressure on a result in Switzerland.
That isn't really the case anymore.
However, a win against Switzerland would guarantee that Ireland qualify.
A win would put Ireland seven points ahead of Switzerland, with the Swiss having only two games to play. Easy.
A draw would not change a whole lot going into the last game.
Fixtures On November 15th
Ireland only play one game in November, with the Danes and the Swiss both playing two.
Switzerland host Georgia, while Denmark travel to Gibraltar. You can expect wins for both sides.
The Final Game
Switzerland go to Gibraltar and will win that game.
If Ireland beat the Swiss, they would already have qualified. If we fail to beat Switzerland, we have to beat Denmark. It's as simple as that.
Even if we lose to the Swiss, we would only be three points behind Denmark. A win in that game would put us at least level with the Danes.
Things would then come down to head-to-head. As Ireland would have beaten Denmark at home and drawn away, we would go through.
A win against Denmark also guarantees qualification. Anything less than a win in of those two games, and we are out.
Conclusion
If Ireland beat Switzerland, they will go through.
If Ireland beat Denmark, they will go through.
Ireland have to win one of the last two games. If they win neither, they are out.
Summary
Win on of the last two games and we qualify. Nothing else is good enough and we'll have to hope for a play-off if we're to somehow qualify in the end.
