Not all transfer news should be treated equally. Sometimes, tidbits like Yoann Cabaye moving to London to join his former boss Alan Pardew are so obviously 'false'* that it's not even worth thinking about.
What is worth thinking about is the endless supply of players being linked to the likes of Manchester United and Liverpool - all of which has real substance. All that's left is for the two British giants to swipe left or right on their potential targets to see whether or not these deals can get Jim White to cut across someone for some Breaking NewsTM.
Today's extremely reliable transfer certainty of the day involves the notoriously dependable swap deal involving Manchester United and a familar name - Nicholas Gaitan.
Portuguese reports are linking the Argentine with a move to Old Trafford for the 394th time in the last three years but this time it's actually going to happen guys. In return, United will send Benfica one Javier Hernandez, one Rafael da Silva, up to 30 milhões de euros (that's millions of euros), and two sheep, a tin of roses and a Mad Max DVD to Benfica in an attempt to persuade them to part with their prized Gaitan.
What's not clear, given the unreliability of Google, is whether that's 30 milhões AND Rafael + Hernandez, or the Rafael + Hernandez are included in the milhões of Euros.
The paper also reports that Louis van Gaal has put Rafael, Chicharito, the tins of roses, the Glazer's 35 wallets and the sheep into the back of his caravan in Manchester, set to drive to Lisbon to make sure the deal is done.
There you are. The transfer certainty of the day.