With Rory McIlroy injured, the Open Championship at St. Andrew's has become wide open. I fully believe that McIlroy would have walked this tournament by up to 20 strokes given how much he loves St. Andrews, but we'll have to wait until 2020 for Rory to claim the jug at the home of golf.
With McIlroy out of it, all the talk is on whether Jordan Spieth can claim a third major in a row on the way to the calendar slam. Given that only one other golfer has ever one the first three majors in a year it would seem unlikely. Added to that is Spieth played in the US last Sunday, and the travel across the pond for this week isn't ideal preparation.
That said, Spieth is an exceptional putter, and while he has a great chance at 8/1, he's priced a bit low for the amount of history and pressure that would be on him. Similarly for Dustin Johnson, who hasn't played since three-putting his way out of making me look like a genius. Johnson will be hurting after that. He's got the game to destroy St. Andrew's, but is priced too low at 11/1 to tempt anyone.
There is some value in the markets though, and here are the top four contenders at good prices that would be worth a nibble.
Rickie Fowler 20/1
You can discount his missed cut at the US Open, after winning the Scottish Open last weekend - Fowler is bang in form. He's one of the best Americans on links golf, and loves the Open. He's had two top five finishes in the tournament - in 2011 and 2014, and had a 14th place finish in his Open debut at St. Andrews in 2010. That debut included a 79 on Thursday, but he showed his class in posting a 67 and making the cut.
Fowler is a better player than he was back then, and with links golf experience, and the taste of winning twice in the last two months, Fowler is a great price at 20/1 to win. He's also a generous 4/1 to finish in the top five, especially given his history and form at the Open.
Recommended: To win 20/1 and Top 5 at 4/1
Henrik Stenson 25/1
Stenson is one of the big contenders with a good history at Andrews. Third at St. Andrews in 2010, his form has been decent in recent weeks, after a blistering start to the season with four top fives in a row. A second place in the BMW Open in his last outing, Stenson has the class and pedigree to add his name to the list of Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, Seve Ballesteros, Nick Faldo and Sam Snead as Open winners at St. Andrews.
Stenson has been in the top five in majors seven times, which is the second most without actually winning a major behind Lee Westwood.
Hideki Matsuyama 40/1
Hideki Matsuyama is my 2015 pick in each major to get a top five finish. He managed it at the majors, but came 18th at the US Open and I'm tipping him here again. Matsuyama has enjoyed his time at the Open. A sixth place finish in his debut Open in 2013 was impressive, and there's no reason why he can't do something similar at St. Andrew's.
Matsuyama is highly accurate and long, two attributes which will help him cut through the Old Course at the home of golf.
Recommended Bet: Top Five 7/1
Branden Grace 50/1
You may not have heard of Branden Grace before but here's why he's a good bet: He's one of the course record holders at St. Andrew's (62), is the current champion of the Dunhill Links tournament that includes two rounds at St. Andrews.
A top five finish at the US Open proved he can compete with the best, and he's got four other top 20's in his last six tournaments. Grace has the putting temperament to contend at the Majors, and ranks in the top five in putts from within five feet, while also ranking high in scrambling which will be important in the rough of Andrews.
Recommended Bet: 7/2 Top 10, or 8/1 for top 5.
