Are All NFL Draft Pundits Idiots? We Investigate

John Dodge
By John Dodge
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The NFL draft takes place in Chicago this week and the whole event is perfect for US sports TV. Every one has already  given their opinion on who teams should select, During the night, we'll see all the hot takes on TV and online. After the event we'll see tons and tons of reaction pieces pop up all over the web. Every single one of them is bluffing. OK so bluffing is probably OTT but certainly the best guesses of the top analysts are quite frequently wrong.

2014 Pre-Draft Rankings

The 2 men most famous for draft predictions are Mel Kiper and Todd McShay. The independent website with the best reputation is and they have year round coverage of the NFL draft (their 2016 rankings are up).   Let's see how many they got right, and Camp had Johnny Manziel the top QB at number 7. So I think we have established that these lads are spoofers.

2014 Post-Draft Rankings


If the pre-draft writers are spoofers, the post draft analysts are worse.  We may be speaking with benefit of hindsight here but surely the lesson is that the anaylsts should calm down and not gush wildly about every pick? Here's some highlights Pete Prisco - CBS , Bortles has been historically bad in his first season.

Many rookie quarterbacks struggle, but Blake Bortles‘ rookie season was historically bad. His 21.9 QBR was the third worst for a rookie since 2006. He completed 58.9 percent of his passes (28th in the NFL) and threw just 11 touchdown passes against 17 interceptions.

if you want more.

Our Analysis

If you're staying up late for the draft, sit back and enjoy the blowhards. As long as you understand that every first round pick will be overpraised, you can have fun with it. If you're in work tomorrow, do not have a drinking game that involves the phrase "love this pick."  You can have your say on each of your favourite team's picks safe in the knowledge that you probably have the same chance as being right as the lads on TV.

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