The nature versus nurture debate has been a long one and the last time I checked, we were no closer to solving which one has the overriding influence on the individual - annoying really, because if it was more conclusive, I wouldn’t have any doubts about my pick for the Derby.
I have long had a fascination with the current favourite Dawn Approach that, in fact, began before he was born, back in 2006. His father, New Approach was selling at Goffs horse auction. He seemed an eccentric equine with an imposing stature, hint of volatility and enormous presence and went on to have a captivating career which was, at times at the mercy of his idiosyncrasies. His talent was abundant, but so too were his quirks and had he been in less capable hands than the great Jim Bolgers, they may have infringed more significantly on his success.
And now his most successful son is going to try and win the Derby, an eighth victory in a row. His talent is unquestionable and as for his temperament, the apple couldn’t be farther from the tree. However, his genetic make-up means this is way beyond his optimum trip and what is very questionable is whether he’ll get the distance. Bolger put a lot of resources into research that tracked the equine genome and it confirms that the step up for the Derby distance could be a problem.
So should I look elsewhere for my selection?
No. Because in contrast to his dad, he is easily switched off in a race and doesn’t get anywhere near serious until the final stages. Hopefully his attitude will enable him to defy the genetic disposition & conserve most of his efforts for a demolishing burst of speed in the final furlong. But everyone knows his Achilles tendon and it’s unlikely that contenders such as Ruler Of The World won’t try and make this a test of stamina from the get go. They can try all they want though-I still think he’ll win.
If you’re fond of backing very short price favourites, something is telling me to be cautious with St Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation Cup. He’s a similar price to when he was beaten in the Mooresbridge and was a busy globe trotter last year.
As for the Epsom Dash, I think 2011’s winner Captain Dunne could reclaim his crown.
And speaking of the Dash, I’m off.
Happy punting this long weekend!
Hayley's bets for the weekend:
Dawn Approach in Epsom Derby (4pm Saturday) @
Captain Dunne in the Epsom Dash (3.15pm Saturday) @
Follow Hayley O'Connor on Twitter - @HayleyLadbrokes
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