The perception of this Lions series has altered after Australia's dramatic victory in the second test and Brian O'Driscoll being dropped by Warren Gatland. Many bookmakers responded to Australia's victory last week by opening with a 'scratch' spread for the third test, meaning that both teams were equal odds to win. However, money has come in for the Wallabies all week and they are now 5/6 favourites and -2 on the spread with Ladbrokes.
Obviously, O'Driscoll being left out of the matchday squad has taken all of the headlines but possibly of even greater importance on Saturday will the tourist's lack of a genuine open-side to take on George Smith. Gatland has opted for the dynamism and power of Sean O'Brien to replace the injured Sam Warburton over the more recognised 'fetcher' in Justin Tipuric. Smith remarkably is still only 32 and has enjoyed a career resurgence under Jake White at the ACT Brumbies this season and we expect him to have a huge game.
The Lions' shaky lineout will also hardly be improved by Richard Hibbard getting the nod at hooker. In theory, Hibbard and Alex Corbisieo should improve the scrum but the English loose-head has been rushed back after a calf injury so may not be at one hundred percent.
Added to all of that, while leadership can certainly be overrated in rugby, its hard not have a slightly uneasy feeling about the Lions playing in a third test decider without their captain, O'Driscoll and Paul O'Connell. While this has looked a relatively mediocre Wallabies side, they would probably have won the first test if Christian Lealiifano hadn't been taken off in the first minute and have looked the more positive side throughout the series. We think they will have taken alot of belief from last week's narrow victory and will cut out alot of the reasonably inexplicable handling errors.
It doesn't feel fully right but ultimately this is a betting column and at least if the Lions lose badly, you can make some money out of it. So without further ado, we're tipping Australia -8 at 9/4 with Ladbrokes and a reasonably comfortable win for Robbie Deans' men.
Picture credit: Stephen McCarthy / SPORTSFILE
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