The current format of the Champions Cup is much maligned, and rightly so, but it does provide teams with ample opportunity to qualify for the knock-out rounds, with the top four teams from each pool making it through.
Thus, at this moment in time, all four of Ireland's provinces are still in the hunt to make the next round, with Leinster already qualified.
It has been an average pool stage for the provinces, with none of the four showing much consistency in terms of playing to the best of their abilities, and with one match left to play, we have take a look at the permutations heading into the final round of pool games.
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Champions Cup Permutations For Ireland's Provinces
Connacht
Unfortunately, Connacht are as good as done.
They will live to fight another day after Bordeaux's hammering of Saracens this evening, but they are still in need of a couple of minor miracles.
They are currently last in Pool 1 with a single point from their three games, and are four points behind both Bristol and Saracens. To qualify, they must finish ahead of both these sides.
Connacht face Bristol at home next week, and a bonus point win while denying Bristol any points will see them overtake the English side in the standings.
Teams that finish level on points, their ranking is determined firstly by points difference, and then by tries scored. Bristol have the advantage here with a -31 points difference to Connacht's -69.
To move ahead of Saracens, they will first have to hope that the English side lose do not win, draw, or obtain two bonus points in their game at home to Lyon next week.
Connacht's most likely route to the next round is if Saracens get no points and the Irish side get all five against Bristol.
If both sides finish level on points, they will have to over haul a points difference of 37 in Saracens favour.
All fifth place sides qualify for the Challenge Cup round-of-16, so it is very much in Connacht's interest to beat Bristol well, regardless of the Saracens result.
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13 January 2024; Ireland rugby ; Thaakir Abrahams of Lyon is tackled by Shane Jennings and Andrew Smith of Connacht during the Investec Champions Cup Pool 1 Round 3 match between Lyon and Connacht at Matmut Stadium de Gerland in Lyon, France. Photo by Romain Biard/Sportsfile
Ulster
Bath did Ulster a huge favour today with their narrow win over Racing 92 earlier today, as a win for the French side would have made it near impossible for them to progress.
None the less, Ulster will still more than likely need a win away to Harlequins next week to secure their place in the last-16.
It will be a famous victory for the province should they pull it off against a Quins side who have just hockeyed Cardiff 15-54 away from home.
Ulster currently lie in fourth in Pool 2 on five points, with Harlequins on 10 and Racing on three.
Racing face Cardiff at home next week, where anything other than a bonus point win will be a shock.
13 January 2024; Ireland rugby ; James Hume of Ulster after his side's defeat in the Investec Champions Cup Pool 2 Round 3 match between Ulster and Toulouse at Kingspan Stadium in Belfast. Photo by Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile
Munster
Munster's brilliant win away to Toulon has effectively guaranteed them qualification for the next round.
Theoretically Bayonne can catch them, but they would need Northampton to prevent Munster from getting any points from their clash at Thomond Park next week, while also beating Exeter with a bonus point themselves, and somehow over turning the 51 points difference Munster have on them.
With eight points from their three games so far - six behind Northampton and five behind Exeter - Munster can focus on securing a better seed for the last-16.
Exeter will more than likely come away with at least a losing bonus point away to Bayonne, and Munster will need a win over Northampton to ensure they are not caught by Glasgow, who lie three points behind.
13 January 2024; Ireland rugby ; Alex Kendellen of Munster after the Investec Champions Cup Pool 3 Round 3 match between RC Toulon and Munster at Stade Felix Mayol in Toulon, France. Photo by Eóin Noonan/Sportsfile
Leinster
Leinster won't be caught by either Leicester or the Stormers, as their points difference is too great.
They will, however, be looking for a big win away to Leicester next week to ensure as high a seed as possible for the round of 16.
Although the standings will change next week, Twitter user @topofthemoonGW took the time to look at the round-of-16 with the current seedings.
A fun exercise, but nothing to worry about for Leinster fans who see their side drawn against La Rochelle as things stand.
You can read an explainer below from the EPCR website on how the seeding work:
"Round of 16
2.6 The four highest-ranked clubs in each pool will qualify for the Round of 16. All clubs will thereafter be ranked in descending order based firstly on their ranking in their pool and subsequently on the number of match points they have accumulated, to create an overall ranking from 1 to 16.
The pool winners will be ranked 1 to 4, the second-placed clubs will be ranked 5 to 8, the third-placed clubs will be ranked 9 to 12, and the fourth-placed clubs will be ranked 13 to 16. The Round of 16 will thereafter be played over one match as follows:
R16 1: Number 1-ranked club v Number 16-ranked club
R16 2: Number 2-ranked club v Number 15-ranked club
R16 3: Number 3-ranked club v Number 14-ranked club
R16 4: Number 4-ranked club v Number 13-ranked club
R16 5: Number 5-ranked club v Number 12-ranked club
R16 6: Number 6-ranked club v Number 11-ranked club
R16 7: Number 7-ranked club v Number 10-ranked club
R16 8: Number 8-ranked club v Number 9-ranked club
NB The clubs ranked numbers 1 to 8 will have home advantage in the Round of 16.
- The clubs ranked fifth in each of the pools will qualify for the Round of 16 of the EPCR Challenge Cup."
Here is how the @ChampionsCup knockout stages would look if they were based on the pools as they stand after Round 3. pic.twitter.com/Vm3em4KK1W
— Kevin Millar (@topofthemoonGW) January 14, 2024
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