With South Africa's comfortable win over Tonga, the World Cup pathways for Pool B's teams have become clearer, ahead of this Saturday's crunch fixture between Ireland and Scotland.
Ireland are not in the clear yet, and in this post we will look at the permutations in Pool B, and the likelihood of quarter-final qualification for the Irish, the Springboks, and the Scots.
Rugby World Cup Pool B Permutations
If Ireland lose to and finish on the same points as Scotland, then they will more than likely be eliminated from the tournament, as head-to-head is the first tiebreaker.
The most likely scenario for this to happen is if Scotland win by more seven points, and deny Ireland the four-try bonus point.
A losing bonus point against Scotland would likely see Ireland through as group winners, as it would be a big ask for the Scots to score four tries against the elite Irish defence (since the 2020/21 season, Ireland have only conceded four tries or more on two occasions, against Japan and the All Blacks), while two bonus points - a losing BP and four-try BP - would guarantee that Ireland advance to the quarters as group winners.
There is also the intriguing scenario of three teams finishing on the same points. This would occur if Scotland secure a try bonus point and a win, with Ireland only getting a single bonus point.
This would bring points difference into the equation to determine who tops the pool, and then head-to-head to decide who gets second.
Rugby World Cup Pool B Permutations Graph
READ HERE: Ex-South Africa Head Coach 'Absolutely Livid' With Referee After Ireland Win
For South Africa to be eliminated, the only scenario for this to be possible is if Ireland lose with just a try bonus point, and Scotland win by 21 points or more.
Can Ireland qualify even if they lose and don't get any bonus points against Scotland? No. If this happens, then either Scotland and South Africa would finish with 15 points to Ireland's 14, or Scotland would beat Ireland to second place on head-to-head.
In terms of the quarter-final and semi-final, a date with the All Blacks in the quarters in looking likely.
Judging by form so far, if Ireland were to get through to the semis, they would face the winner of the game between the runner up of in Pool D and the winner of Pool C, which will likely be Wales.
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