The All Blacks is a rugby dynasty founded upon a thousand tiny details: tiny margins stack up to yawning gaps on a scoreboard. And so it proved in Auckland: a 30-15 victory over the Lions, in a game the tourists' played relatively well in. The Lions need a result in Wellington next Saturday to maintain the series as a going concern, so what changes are needed?
Here we speculate as to what Gatland is likely to do, and contrast that with the decisions we would make.
What Gatland will likely do
The Loss of Alun-Wyn
The only opponent as likely to ultimately defeat you as the All Blacks is Father Time, and Jones appeared to be at the mercy at the former and already smithereened by the latter in this morning's first Test. His handling around the field was sloppy - one egregious knock-on int he first-half lingers - and Jones naturally lacked the dynamism as his second-half replacement, Maro Itoje.
Jones will likely miss out on the squad for next week, given the Lions' reserves at second-row. Expect Itoje to start alongside George Kruis, with Courtney Lawes the most likely to be promoted to the bench.
Admit That He Needs Captain Sam
It is an overly-reductive reading of Warburton's influence on the first Test to point to the scoreboard at either end of his performance: when he replaced Peter O'Mahony, the scoreline was 13-8. The subsequent folding was not solely Warburton's fault: the Lions ultimately ran out of steam after a helter-skelter opening 50 minutes. While this was heartening and thrilling to watch, it ultimately hoisted Gatland's tourists: the All Blacks can play at that pace and make very few errors across a full 80 minutes.
The sheer speed of the All Blacks' ruck ball was frightening in the first half, forcing the Lions to make 91 tackles in 40 minutes merely to guard the floodgates.
If the Lions are going to win next weekend, they need to slow down that All Black ball, which means we might see Warburton drafted in: his ability to compete on the ground to do exactly that is his biggest strength, and is prized by Gatland. Warburton makes little impact from the bench, so we may see Gatland trust his captain for the first minute next week.
What Gatland should do
Rejig the full second-row....
Jones won't make the squad for the second Test, and George Kruis did his best to play himself out of the shirt in Auckland. He has been nailed on for a Test spot since the first day of the tour, but the Lions have a wealth of options at second-row that will be more ferocious at ruck time than Kruis, a necessity in the second Test.
The Lions cannot use Maro Itoje's explosiveness as a luxury off the bench, so he must start from the beginning, and he and O'Mahony can run the line-out in Kruis' absence. Courtney Lawes will offer more around the field than Kruis.
...but maintain the back-row
Gatland may be tempted to change the back-row to include Warburton, but for all he might slow down New Zealand ball, he won't offer the line-out chops of O'Mahony (Warburton claimed one lineout in Auckland, and lost it on his way down) and is nowhere near as abrasive as Sean O'Brien. If Gatland is to change his back-row, we reckon he should shake-up what's in reserve. We're looking at you, CJ.
Add more to the bench
Keith Wood was among the myriad pundits ahead of the first Test hailing the potential impact of the Lions' bench, and that came sharper into focus in the first-half, as the All Blacks lost Ryan Crotty in the Corner and Ben Smith to injury. Yet the replacements failed to make much of an impact.
Jack McGrath is somewhat tainted by association with the disastrous scrum prefacing Ioane's first try; Sam Warburton did nothing; Ken Owens threw an errant dart; Johnny Sexton struggled to make an impact, while Leigh Halfpenny was never going to make one. Only Kyle Sinckler truly added anything from the bench.
The issue for Gatland is the relative dearth of back-line options to spring from the bench, the more electric of those in reserve (Joseph, Seymour) have been out of form. The loss of Stuart Hogg is keenly felt. The back three deserve to start once again, but the Lions need more energy from the bench. If George North can find some form against the Hurricanes on Tuesday, perhaps he can add that spark. It's a big 'if', however.
