With Leinster and Connacht already qualified for the last-16 of the Champions Cup and Challenge Cup, we have taken a look at what Ulster and Munster need to do to reach the knockout stages of Europe's top competition.
Munster
Champions Cup Pool B Standings
The southern province are in a favourable position going into their final group game against Toulouse next Sunday, despite not having qualified yet.
Should they come away from France with zero points - assuming Montpellier defeat London Irish at home - Clermont Auvergne would still have to upset the Stormers in South Africa, while Sale Sharks would have to come away from Ravenhill with a win. Judging by Ulster's resurgent performance against La Rochelle yesterday, they will be favourites to overcome the Premiership side in Belfast.
A loss for either Sale or Clermont will guarantee Munster's progression, while a losing bonus point or try bonus point would mean that Sale would have to defeat Ulster with four tries and make up the points difference.
Two points for Munster - through a draw or two bonus points - will guarantee them a passage to the next round, regardless of other results.
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17 December 2022; John Cooney of Ulster after the Heineken Champions Cup Pool B Round 2 match between Ulster and La Rochelle at Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Photo by Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile
Ulster
Most would agree that the relatively new format of the Champions Cup is a considerable step down from the old ways. Zero win Ulster, however, will be counting their blessings.
Should they defeat Sale, while denying them two bonus points, all they need is for the Stormers to win and deny a less than vintage Clermont side any try or losing bonus points. Given the Stormers' strength at home and the fact that they have not qualified yet themselves, this scenario is hugely plausible.
Anything less than a victory will eliminate Ulster, but a five point win over Sale will mean that they can afford Clermont to leave Cape Town with a point. If Ulster finish level on points with the French side, they will need to make up the considerable points difference of -50 compared to Clermont's -12.
Again, this is all assuming that Montpellier will easily put away London Irish, who have nothing to play for when they travel to France next Sunday. Unfortunately for Ulster, this also means that any type of win for Clermont will see the Irish province eliminated from the competition.
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