Ahead of the fourth round of the 2024 Six Nations, former Ireland rugby star Stephen Ferris gives his prediction and preview for every game this weekend.
An exciting weekend of fixtures is expected as Ireland clash with England this Saturday at 4:45pm in Twickenham, and Italy take on Scotland at 2:15pm. Wales and France will close out Round 4 with their fixture on Sunday afternoon.
Here are Stephen Ferris' predictions for Round 4 of the Six Nations:
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Ireland v England-
A team gets going well for a period of time and then they lose a couple of players or the coach goes a bad run and then all of a sudden the other nations get stronger, but that just hasn't been the case with Ireland, they've just been at a consistent level and that's something you can say about England- that they are inconsistent in more or less everything that they are doing.
Fair play to Steve Borthwick, everybody talked about this English side, that they needed to get rid of some of the old faces to bring in new blood and completely revolutionize the way of playing with the players that he has. To a certain extent he's done that regarding the players anyway, and it is going to take a bit of time. Steve Borthwick has been in the game an awful long time. He's worked under Eddie Jones, he's worked for the Lions. I think he's the second most capped player ever in the Gallagher premiership and he knows his stuff. He is a very good coach. I was reading an article last night and there's hardly a player that has a bad word to say about him in terms of his coaching capacity. Now, the thing that separates in my own opinion, him and Andy Farrell, is how Andy Farrell has a relationship with the guys of he comes across as if he is their mate and he's able to keep them smiling, laughing, enjoying the culture and the environment. I'm sure he gets absolutely stuck into them behind closed doors, but out in the open he has these guys absolutely humming.
The intricacies that Ireland play with, this blueprint that I keep talking about, it doesn't matter who is brought in if there's a couple of changes this weekend to the team. We think it's going to be a lot stronger again with Hugo Keenan at full back and possible Gary Ringrose at 13, but Henshaw and Aki are obviously playing very, very well and two really strong guys to have in the midfield. So we will see how that goes.
This Ireland team- 12 points in the handicap going away to Twickenham, the expectation levels are so, so low for England, that's why it gives you a bit of a fright, will there be complacency by Ireland? I don't believe there is, we talk about this every week. You know, it's Italy at home, they might knock it off by a fast start, they pumped them by 36, could have been 56, and again Wales, they go after them physically and I just don't think England have the front five that really cause Ireland troubles like they have done 10 years ago, when I was playing in 2012 when Alex Corbisiero was absolutely dominating us in the scrum and they were getting penalty after penalty- it was like being on rollerskates in the scrum. I just don't think that is going to happen this week.
When you look at the players like for like, it just feels that the Irish players are, first of all, a lot more confident and secondly, they know the game plan that they're going to play to. Generally they're executing it very well. So let's see if Felix Jones and Steve Borthwick and the rest of the coaching staff have some sort of a plan to negate what Ireland are going to throw at them, but it feels like Ireland can beat this handicap. It would be a real statement to go to Twickenham and put 20 points on this English side.
Wales v France
Six points in the handicap for this game, Obviously Gatland loves to announce his squad early. Dafyyd Jenkins, the captain, he's in the back row, Will Rowlands and Adam Beard are in the second row, so he's obviously trying to go toe to toe with the bigger French pack that are probably going to try and stick it up the jumper. But we thought that about the French team over the last few weeks, their line out has been shocking, truly shocking. It looks like they're all at sea and they don't know what they're doing, the timing is off, Mauvaka's throw is off. They're thrown to the tail when they can't even win a ball at the front, just because they feel like they're running out of options.
I know I've said this many times on the pod, like throw, jump, throw the ball, get up in the air. It's the easiest way to win lineout ball, but so many teams try to overcomplicate it and that's what I think France have to do full stop. But not just their line out, the whole game- absolutely everything. Get around the corner, use your huge men.
There's another couple of guys that have huge physicality, you have got to get back to the basics and then the other stuff will come- those 50/50 passes will stick. Damian Penaud has been so hot and cold in the Six Nations. You think he's back and he's brilliant and then next thing he does something daft and it costs him a lot of yardage or a turnover on numerous occasions. So it just feels like France are in a hole and for some reason I think this Welsh side almost deserve a victory in this Six Nations. The way that they've played, the squad that they've picked, and Gatland having to get rid of some of the old guard just feels like Wales plus six in the handicap isn't a bad bet.
We'll wait and see what French team turns up, because if they don't turn up, they will get turned over this week, just like they should have got turned over against Italy two weeks ago.
Italy v Scotland
12 points in the handicap again, Scotland obviously being the favourites. I think Scotland haven't lost to Italy since 2012, they have a lot of games on the bounce- eight consecutive Six Nations games on the bounce. Again, reading through some information over the last couple of days, it's really interesting to see Italy have scored 46% of their points in the final 20 minutes of the games so far in the Six Nations and England have conceded 43% of their points in the final 20 minutes of the game. The last quarter could be really, really tight, if Italy can keep it tight for 60 minutes, the way that they have shown over the last number of weeks that they are finishing a lot stronger- usually they would be blown out the gate and that could be the other way round where Italy see a load of points in the last 20 minutes. But they're the ones that are putting it up to the opposition.
I just feel that this Italy side can turn up against Scotland and they have a couple of game breakers like Monty Ioane and Garbisi was brilliant against France last week. A couple of their pack really turned up, they destroyed the French scrum in their own backyard maybe three or four times during the game. If they can just keep that going and build on the confidence, I know it might have been a slap in the face with the ball ricocheting off the post and ultimately, it probably felt like a loss against France, but the confidence they could take out of that game, the attitude that they showed to come back into it, albeit with the red card, I think will stand them well against Scotland.
If Scotland pitch up and play this fast fluid game that we all hope to see, then of course I think Scotland will edge it. But if Italy can make it a nitty gritty contest, get absolutely wired into them, they can get Scotland to give away a couple of cheap penalties, go after their set piece and be hugely physical. With the home support, the passionate Italian fans that they have, I'm going to go for Italy plus 12 in the handicap.
Stephen's Predictions
England: +12 points
Italy: +12 points
Wales: +6 points
